A number of markets about Pope Francis’ potential resignation in 2025 have been launched by the world’s biggest platform for prediction markets, Polymarket. Over $1.39 million in trade volume has already been allocated to this “event“.
Wagers on Pope Francis’ fate in the Vatican have yielded nearly $1.39 million on Polymarket as the 88-year-old’s hospital treatment extends into a third week.
An American cryptocurrency-based prediction market, headquartered in Manhattan, New York City, and launched in 2020, offers punters the selections to guess on “New Pope in 2025?” — where 71% bet on yes — or “Will Pope Francis step down before July?” — where 15% bet in the affirmative.
Active markets on Pope Francis at Polymarket include:
Public campaigners argue that it’s unethical to wager on someone’s health, particularly the leader of the Catholic denomination, and they call for more stringent regulation of websites like Polymarket.
Polymarket has already offered wagers that are offensive or unappealing. A 2023 Polymarket bet on the Titan submersible was criticized for taking advantage of the ill-fated passengers’ fates.
The practice of placing bets on the Pope’s election isn’t new. Such wagers have been widespread since the 16th century, and it wasn’t until 1591 that Pope Gregory XIV forbade Catholics from placing bets on the election of the pope and the length of his rule, a practice that carried a penalty of excommunication. However, Catholic gamblers can relax if they wish to wager on Pope Francis’ future. The old system of canon law, which was largely updated to more contemporary versions, applies to Gregory XIV’s decree. In 1918, the papal gambling ban was repealed.
